Global food commodity prices are projected to rise by 7% in 2027, following an anticipated 10% improve in 2026, as higher energy costs, weather-related provide pressures and disruptions to exports drive prices upward.
The projection was contained in the World Bank Group’s newest Commodity Markets Outlook, which additionally expects grain prices to rise by 9% in 2027.
Although beneficial harvests in some areas could assist restrict international worth will increase, weather-related disruptions might set off sharper worth spikes in particular places.
Energy costs and climate drive food prices
The World Bank attributed the projected improve in food commodity prices partly to the early results of El Niño on tropical commodity provides. However, it stated higher energy prices and disruptions to food exports by way of the Black Sea, following assaults on maritime infrastructure, would have a higher affect.
The report famous that international climate patterns could have an effect on agricultural manufacturing otherwise throughout areas, with some areas recording improved harvests whereas others expertise decrease output.
Global grain output is predicted to say no considerably in 2026.
Despite this decline, whole grain provides in the 2026–2027 season are projected to be 3% higher than in 2024–2025.
- Strong harvests of key crops are anticipated to assist comprise general food commodity worth will increase.
- The World Bank warned that comparatively reasonable international worth actions could nonetheless coincide with sharp will increase in particular person markets affected by El Niño.
The projections recommend that whereas international provides might cushion a number of the stress, shoppers in areas going through adversarial climate or provide disruptions could expertise extra vital worth will increase.
Beverage prices anticipated to say no
Unlike food commodities, beverage prices are anticipated to fall by 24% in 2026 as cocoa and low manufacturing recovers from earlier disease- and weather-related setbacks.
- The World Bank expects beverage prices to stabilise broadly in 2027, as falling espresso prices partly offset rising cocoa prices. Its agricultural commodity worth index, which mixes food, drinks and uncooked supplies, is projected to extend barely in 2026 earlier than rising by 5% in 2027.
The outlook due to this fact factors to differing worth tendencies throughout agricultural commodities, with food and grain prices anticipated to extend whereas the restoration in beverage manufacturing eases a number of the stress on that class.
Nigeria’s inflation continues to ease
In Nigeria, headline inflation eased to 14.63% in September 2026, down from 15.39% in August, marking one other month-to-month decline.
- Food inflation stood at 19.59% year-on-year in September 2026, in contrast with 20.16% in September 2025, in line with the National Bureau of Statistics.
- The international food commodity outlook comes as energy markets additionally face anticipated worth changes. Nairametrics previously reported that the World Bank projected Brent crude oil prices to common $79 per barrel in 2027, down from $91 per barrel in 2026, as rising international provides are anticipated to ease market tightness.
The World Bank’s newest projections spotlight the potential for food prices to stay beneath stress globally in 2027, at the same time as some agricultural commodities profit from improved manufacturing and energy markets modify.
