Yinka Kolawole in Osogbo
A former Chief Press Secretary to the immediate-past Governor of Osun State, Gboyega Oyetola, Ismail Omipidan, has questioned the feasibility of securing 1.5 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Osun State in the 2027 common election, warning that the political technique surrounding the goal might undermine the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Omipidan additionally cautioned Tinubu and the APC nationwide management towards political preparations that might alienate loyal get together members, arguing that resentment throughout the get together might weaken grassroots mobilisation forward of the presidential election.
In an opinion article, he maintained that Osun State’s historic voting patterns didn’t assist the projection of 1.5 million presidential votes, urging the president and the get together management to undertake a technique that displays the state’s electoral historical past, political peculiarities, and the pursuits of its individuals.
He additionally expressed concern over the political implications of Governor Ademola Adeleke’s reported emergence as Osun State coordinator of Tinubu’s 2027 re-election marketing campaign, warning that the association might generate discontent amongst APC members if their established political constructions weren’t adequately thought-about.
“In war, just like in politics, strategy is everything,” Omipidan wrote, arguing {that a} technique pushed by the ambitions of some people might fail if it didn’t accommodate the pursuits of the broader get together membership.
Omipidan mentioned he first heard concerning the proposed 1.5 million-vote goal lower than 24 hours after the APC misplaced the August 15, 2026, governorship election in Osun State.
He added that the following repetition of the goal by the get together’s National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, had heightened his considerations concerning the political calculations behind the proposal.
The APC misplaced the governorship election to Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party.
According to Omipidan, the proposed goal appeared inconsistent with Osun’s historic presidential election outcomes, because the state had by no means recorded as much as a million votes for a presidential candidate in earlier elections.
Citing the 2011 presidential election, he mentioned the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) candidate polled 299,711 votes in Osun State, whereas the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) secured 188,409 votes, with registered voters standing at 1,342,289.
In 2015, he mentioned the APC received the state with 383,603 votes towards the PDP’s 249,929, whereas the variety of registered voters was 1,407,107.
For the 2019 presidential election, Omipidan cited 347,634 votes for the APC and 337,377 for the PDP.
In the 2023 presidential election, he mentioned the APC polled 342,941 votes in Osun, whereas the PDP secured 353,860.
He argued that the figures demonstrated the problem of reaching the proposed 1.5 million votes, notably with no substantial enhance in voter participation.
“Historically, Osun State has never posted up to a million votes in any presidential election, and it will not happen next year, unless some persons just want to write figures,” he mentioned.
Omipidan acknowledged that voter turnout in presidential elections might differ from that recorded throughout governorship elections however maintained that the excellence ought to inform the get together’s electoral calculations.
He urged the APC management to ascertain real looking targets based mostly on the state’s voting patterns and develop a mobilisation technique able to attracting voters throughout Osun State.
Omipidan expressed concern over the political preparations being developed in Osun State to safe Tinubu’s re-election.
He particularly questioned the implications of Adeleke’s reported appointment because the president’s marketing campaign coordinator in the state, arguing that the APC should make sure the association didn’t undermine its present constructions.
While acknowledging the governor’s function in the rising marketing campaign association, Omipidan maintained that the APC ought to be allowed to strengthen its organisational equipment and mobilise its members in assist of Tinubu.
He warned that get together members who felt sidelined might turn into much less dedicated to the marketing campaign, doubtlessly weakening the grassroots mobilisation required to realize the specified electoral consequence.
According to him, the presidency and the APC nationwide management should take note of the considerations of get together loyalists who’ve invested time and sources in constructing the get together.
He additionally cautioned towards political preparations that might create pointless divisions between Tinubu and the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, a outstanding APC determine in Osun State.
“President Tinubu and Oyetola must tread softly and cautiously,” he wrote, urging each leaders to think about the implications of the rising political dynamics.
Omipidan recommended that these selling the present association might inadvertently create pressure between the 2 leaders if the pursuits of the established APC construction weren’t adequately protected.
He argued that the get together’s nationwide management shouldn’t underestimate the emotions of members who may understand the association as favouring a couple of political actors on the expense of the broader get together.
He maintained that the success of the president’s re-election marketing campaign would rely partly on the flexibility of the APC to reconcile competing pursuits and be sure that its members remained actively concerned in the mobilisation course of.
Omipidan additional argued that political methods should mirror the peculiarities of the states in which they’re deployed, noting that an method that works in one a part of the nation may not essentially produce the identical outcomes elsewhere.
He maintained that Osun’s political tradition, voters’ expectations and prevailing pursuits ought to be thought-about in figuring out how the APC would pursue Tinubu’s re-election.
According to him, electoral mobilisation includes greater than bringing outstanding political figures collectively or saying formidable vote targets.
He argued that voters and get together members are influenced by private pursuits, political loyalties, feelings and expectations, which may form their choices on the polls.
Omipidan additionally drew on the Rational Choice Theory related to economist and thinker Adam Smith to clarify how private pursuits might affect voting choices.
He mentioned his earlier work making use of the idea to electoral behaviour confirmed that voters’ choices have been influenced not solely by candidates’ identities or get together affiliations but additionally by their evaluation of private pursuits and potential advantages.
According to him, voters usually take into account out there alternate options earlier than deciding which candidate or political platform they consider will greatest serve their pursuits.
He argued that the idea supplied a helpful framework for understanding why political preparations that appeared advantageous to get together leaders may not robotically translate into widespread assist amongst get together members or voters.
He, due to this fact, known as for higher engagement with stakeholders in Osun State to handle considerations surrounding the rising marketing campaign association earlier than they developed into deeper divisions.
According to him, the APC must strengthen its constructions in the state, deal with the considerations of aggrieved members and be sure that its marketing campaign preparations encourage somewhat than discourage grassroots participation.
